My interpretation of the situation:
I see Bush as someone who goes with his gut instincts over analysis, a trait that either exasperates or endears others towards him. Following 9/11, like many others, he felt like lashing out and seeking vengeance, while also feeling vulnerable and afraid. This led first to the operation in Afghanistan. The question last Winter, early Spring was what to do next. Iraq was an easy sell to the President who has a preoccupation with fixing, what he perceives to be, his father's mistakes (raising taxes, ignoring the right wing, and letting Saddam stay in power). The fact that it is a Muslim country gives it an emotional if not factual connection to the events of 9/11. Thus, there is a feeling that attacking Iraq is doing something about terrorism, whether or not that is indeed the case
Once, it was clear that the idea had appeal to Bush, others in the administration decided to join the bandwagon adding their own visions of U.S. foreign policy. Those who believe in a Pax Americana with the U.S. as the new Roman Empire, welcomed any chance to extend our influence. Iraq is as good as anyplace so OK we're aboard. The Israeli-centric voices also thought such a war might help their agenda. The strategic value of Oil (and water) did not go unnoticed by those who felt that our foreign policy in the past did not focus enough on our strategic interests. Finally others liked the fact that it could have a positive effect on Republican chances in the midterm elections. Above all else, though it is a chance to do something active with a high degree of success.
A decision to have the war seems to have been made about a year ago and a timetable to allow for the realities of the elections and Iraqi weather and troop mobilization was decided upon that called for an attack in late February or early March of this year. All that remained was to sell it to the American people. An exhaustive search for any connection at all to Al Qa'ida was begun while various reasons for fighting the war were floated. These have included:
The arms control approach seemed to be the most effective of these, probably because it fed into our collective neurosis. Thus began the game being currently played out with the U.N. inspectors. I think this is a sideshow and our attack will occur no matter what the UN does or does not find. One only has to look at our reaction to North Korea to see that this is not really an issue of arms control for the administration.
The most serious justification offered for the war is the following scenario: We replace Saddam with either General Tommy Franks who gets to reprise McArthur's staring role in Japan, or perhaps with a home grown Adenauer. In either case, a model westward leaning democracy is created in the Muslim world to act as a beacon of enlightenment to the rest of the region and the dominos will fall one by one until the entire region resembles Europe.
I am against the war because I think this grand vision is flawed. I think it makes no sense to create an Islamic democracy, while destabilizing the one that already exists, Turkey and another trying to be born, Iran. Iran seems to be rapidly moving towards democracy on its own with a rejection of its theocratic leg irons; declaring it part of the axis of evil and hinting that it is the next domino to fall does not abet this process.
Even under the rosiest scenarios, in which Saddam decides to take asylum or the Iraqis welcome us with open arms, I do not think the whole enterprise has been worth the damage done to the Atlantic Alliance, to the principles of justice, to our images in the wider world and in particular the Muslim world. That by a wide margin the U.S. is identified as the nation that is the largest obstacle to world peace is not a good thing. For those that feel we must do something, anything, to fight terrorism, I would suggest that Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt would be more fruitful places in which to turn our attention than Iraq. (A mirror might be a useful place to look also). And instead of fanning the flames of hate, terror and violence with more hate and violence, we would be wiser to use justice to quench the inferno.