Volume 1 Number 4 December 2002

The standard theories to account for large migrations across national borders rely on a rational model of behavior, to analyze reasons for a group of people to leave their homes and for another country to welcome or to reject them. It is proposed here that such a model needs to be supplemented by an examination of irrational factors - either against a people's own economic interests, or as the products of their unconscious processes - that underlie the current xenophobia of European countries, which are erecting new barriers to immigrants because a dramatic shift in their demography threatens to undermine support for 'welfare state' social measures. Up to now migrations have been analyzed in terms of economic forces that draw immigrants to countries offering betters opportunities, or of political threats that drive refugees to seek security in an open society. In past countries, Europe was both a source of emigration to destinations such as North America and a recipient of immigrants from lands to the east. An equilibrium was reached because these flows balanced, while continental birth and death rates stayed relatively high.

Utilizing the analogy of violence to a volcano, with its seething preconditions that ultimately lead to an eruption, this paper applies negotiated order theory to an analysis of violent outbreaks in 1992-93 in Los Angeles and numerous German cities but not in Chicago, New York, or Dresden. Such theoretical considerations as assumptions, perceptions, power relationships, social structure, communication, and interaction strategies emerge as pertinent considerations. Despite different cultures and histories, similar patterns in Germany and the United States are found, suggesting one possible means of proactive steps to prevent violence.